Selected outcome
Obernolte, 5+ pts
wide spread 84–96%
Obernolte, 5+ pts
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
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Markets
- Obernolte, 11+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 11 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 63–75%
Bid 63¢ · Ask 75¢
- Obernolte, 14+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 14 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 49–61%
Bid 49¢ · Ask 61¢
- Obernolte, 17+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 17 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$3 vol
wide spread 34–46%
Bid 34¢ · Ask 46¢
- Obernolte, 2+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 2 percentage points?
94%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 89¢ · Ask 98.7¢
- Obernolte, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 20 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 21–33%
Bid 21¢ · Ask 33¢
- Obernolte, 23+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 23 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 11–22%
Bid 11¢ · Ask 22¢
- Obernolte, 26+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 26 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 2–14%
Bid 2.4¢ · Ask 14¢
- Obernolte, 5+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 5 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 84–96%
Bid 84¢ · Ask 95.5¢
- Obernolte, 8+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 8 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$138 vol
wide spread 75–86%
Bid 75¢ · Ask 86¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.