Selected outcome
Republicans, 12+ pts
wide spread 81–93%
Republicans, 12+ pts
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Republicans, 12+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 12 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 81–93%
Bid 81¢ · Ask 92.5¢
- Republicans, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 15 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 74–86%
Bid 74¢ · Ask 86¢
- Republicans, 9+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 9 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 86–98%
Bid 86¢ · Ask 97.8¢
- Republicans, 18+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 18 percentage points?
74%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$296 vol
Bid 69¢ · Ask 79¢
- Republicans, 21+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 21 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 58–70%
Bid 58¢ · Ask 70¢
- Republicans, 24+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 48–60%
Bid 48¢ · Ask 60¢
- Republicans, 27+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 27 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 39–51%
Bid 39¢ · Ask 51¢
- Republicans, 30+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 30 percentage points?
37%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$6 vol
wide spread 29–41%
Bid 29¢ · Ask 41¢
- Republicans, 33+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 33 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$556 vol
wide spread 20–31%
Bid 20¢ · Ask 31¢
- Republicans, 36+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 36 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$78 vol
wide spread 13–25%
Bid 13¢ · Ask 25¢
- Republicans, 39+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 39 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$199 vol
wide spread 7–18%
Bid 6.8¢ · Ask 18¢
- Republicans, 42+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 42 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$263 vol
wide spread 2–14%
Bid 2.4¢ · Ask 14¢
- Republicans, 45+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 45 percentage points?
7%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$238 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 11¢
- Republicans, 48+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 48 percentage points?
7%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$43 vol
last
Ask 9.9¢
- Republicans, 51+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 51 percentage points?
9%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$58 vol
last
Ask 9¢
- Republicans, 54+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 54 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 8.6¢
- Republicans, 57+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Louisiana's 4th District House election be at least 57 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 8¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Louisiana's 4th District by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.