Selected outcome
Republicans, 20+ pts
wide spread 82–92%
Republicans, 20+ pts
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Republicans, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 20 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$16 24h · ~$2,892 vol
wide spread 82–92%
Bid 82¢ · Ask 92.2¢
- Republicans, 32+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 32 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 31–43%
Bid 31¢ · Ask 43¢
- Republicans, 35+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 35 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 19–31%
Bid 19¢ · Ask 31¢
- Republicans, 38+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 38 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 8–20%
Bid 8.4¢ · Ask 20¢
- Republicans, 41+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 41 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 1–13%
Bid 1.2¢ · Ask 13¢
- Republicans, 44+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 44 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 8.8¢
- Republicans, 11+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 11 percentage points?
96%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$474 vol
Bid 92.4¢ · Ask 99.8¢
- Republicans, 14+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 14 percentage points?
95%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$684 vol
Bid 92.2¢ · Ask 97.7¢
- Republicans, 17+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 17 percentage points?
94%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$501 vol
Bid 89¢ · Ask 98.8¢
- Republicans, 23+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 23 percentage points?
77%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,095 vol
Bid 73¢ · Ask 81¢
- Republicans, 26+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?
70%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,267 vol
wide spread 61–72%
Bid 61¢ · Ask 72¢
- Republicans, 29+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 29 percentage points?
58%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,450 vol
wide spread 47–58%
Bid 47¢ · Ask 58¢
- Republicans, 5+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 5 percentage points?
95%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$45 vol
Bid 93.9¢ · Ask 95.9¢
- Republicans, 8+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 8 percentage points?
96%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$61 vol
Bid 93.5¢ · Ask 99.4¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Missouri's 4th District by 20 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.