Selected outcome
Republicans, 8+ pts
96%
Republicans, 8+ pts · 96%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Republicans, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 20 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$16 24h · ~$2,892 vol
wide spread 82–92%
Bid 82¢ · Ask 92.2¢
- Republicans, 32+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 32 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 31–43%
Bid 31¢ · Ask 43¢
- Republicans, 35+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 35 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 19–31%
Bid 19¢ · Ask 31¢
- Republicans, 38+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 38 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 8–20%
Bid 8.4¢ · Ask 20¢
- Republicans, 41+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 41 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 1–13%
Bid 1.2¢ · Ask 13¢
- Republicans, 44+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 44 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 8.8¢
- Republicans, 11+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 11 percentage points?
96%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$474 vol
Bid 92.4¢ · Ask 99.8¢
- Republicans, 14+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 14 percentage points?
95%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$684 vol
Bid 92.2¢ · Ask 97.7¢
- Republicans, 17+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 17 percentage points?
94%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$501 vol
Bid 89¢ · Ask 98.8¢
- Republicans, 23+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 23 percentage points?
77%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,095 vol
Bid 73¢ · Ask 81¢
- Republicans, 26+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?
70%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,267 vol
wide spread 61–72%
Bid 61¢ · Ask 72¢
- Republicans, 29+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 29 percentage points?
58%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,450 vol
wide spread 47–58%
Bid 47¢ · Ask 58¢
- Republicans, 5+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 5 percentage points?
95%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$45 vol
Bid 93.9¢ · Ask 95.9¢
- Republicans, 8+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Missouri's 4th District House election be at least 8 percentage points?
96%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$61 vol
Bid 93.5¢ · Ask 99.4¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Missouri's 4th District by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.