Selected outcome
Murphy, 9+ pts
wide spread 38–50%
40%
Murphy, 9+ pts · 40%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Murphy, 1+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the North Carolina's 3rd District House election be at least 1 percentage points?
78%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 73¢ · Ask 82¢
- Murphy, 12+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the North Carolina's 3rd District House election be at least 12 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 25–37%
Bid 25¢ · Ask 37¢
- Murphy, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the North Carolina's 3rd District House election be at least 15 percentage points?
24%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$48 vol
wide spread 13–25%
Bid 13¢ · Ask 25¢
- Murphy, 18+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the North Carolina's 3rd District House election be at least 18 percentage points?
15%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$43 vol
wide spread 5–16%
Bid 4.9¢ · Ask 16¢
- Murphy, 21+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the North Carolina's 3rd District House election be at least 21 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread <1–11%
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 11¢
- Murphy, 24+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the North Carolina's 3rd District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 8.3¢
- Murphy, 3+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the North Carolina's 3rd District House election be at least 3 percentage points?
72%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$166 vol
wide spread 65–77%
Bid 65¢ · Ask 77¢
- Murphy, 6+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the North Carolina's 3rd District House election be at least 6 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$184 vol
wide spread 53–64%
Bid 53¢ · Ask 64¢
- Murphy, 9+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the North Carolina's 3rd District House election be at least 9 percentage points?
40%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$40 vol
wide spread 38–50%
Bid 38¢ · Ask 50¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in North Carolina's 3rd District by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.