Selected outcome
Fernández, 30+ pts
wide spread 6–18%
Fernández, 30+ pts
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
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Markets
- Fernández, 12+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 12 percentage points?
79%
Open · ~$268 24h · ~$377 vol
wide spread 75–86%
Bid 75¢ · Ask 86¢
- Fernández, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 15 percentage points?
69%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$559 vol
wide spread 66–78%
Bid 66¢ · Ask 78¢
- Fernández, 18+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 18 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 54–66%
Bid 54¢ · Ask 66¢
- Fernández, 21+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 21 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 42–54%
Bid 42¢ · Ask 54¢
- Fernández, 24+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 30–42%
Bid 30¢ · Ask 42¢
- Fernández, 27+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 27 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 18–30%
Bid 18¢ · Ask 30¢
- Fernández, 30+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 30 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 6–18%
Bid 6¢ · Ask 18¢
- Fernández, 6+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 6 percentage points?
91%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 87¢ · Ask 94.9¢
- Fernández, 9+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 9 percentage points?
84%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 81¢ · Ask 87¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New Mexico's 3rd District by 30 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.