Selected outcome
Fernández, 6+ pts
91%
Fernández, 6+ pts · 91%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
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Markets
- Fernández, 12+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 12 percentage points?
79%
Open · ~$268 24h · ~$377 vol
wide spread 75–86%
Bid 75¢ · Ask 86¢
- Fernández, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 15 percentage points?
69%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$559 vol
wide spread 66–78%
Bid 66¢ · Ask 78¢
- Fernández, 18+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 18 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 54–66%
Bid 54¢ · Ask 66¢
- Fernández, 21+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 21 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 42–54%
Bid 42¢ · Ask 54¢
- Fernández, 24+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 30–42%
Bid 30¢ · Ask 42¢
- Fernández, 27+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 27 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 18–30%
Bid 18¢ · Ask 30¢
- Fernández, 30+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 30 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 6–18%
Bid 6¢ · Ask 18¢
- Fernández, 6+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 6 percentage points?
91%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 87¢ · Ask 94.9¢
- Fernández, 9+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New Mexico's 3rd District House election be at least 9 percentage points?
84%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 81¢ · Ask 87¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New Mexico's 3rd District by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.