Selected outcome
Gillen, 12+ pts
wide spread 46–57%
50%
Gillen, 12+ pts · 50%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
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Markets
- Gillen, 12+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 12 percentage points?
50%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,262 vol
wide spread 46–57%
Bid 46¢ · Ask 57¢
- Gillen, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 15 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$781 vol
wide spread 33–44%
Bid 33¢ · Ask 44¢
- Gillen, 18+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 18 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$212 vol
wide spread 21–32%
Bid 21¢ · Ask 32¢
- Gillen, 21+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 21 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 10–21%
Bid 9.8¢ · Ask 21¢
- Gillen, 24+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 3–14%
Bid 2.7¢ · Ask 14¢
- Gillen, 3+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 3 percentage points?
86%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$533 vol
wide spread 81–93%
Bid 81¢ · Ask 92.8¢
- Gillen, 6+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?
75%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$644 vol
wide spread 73–85%
Bid 73¢ · Ask 85¢
- Gillen, 9+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 9 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$859 vol
wide spread 61–72%
Bid 61¢ · Ask 72¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 4th District by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.