Selected outcome
Gillen, 3+ pts
wide spread 81–93%
86%
Gillen, 3+ pts · 86%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Gillen, 12+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 12 percentage points?
50%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,262 vol
wide spread 46–57%
Bid 46¢ · Ask 57¢
- Gillen, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 15 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$781 vol
wide spread 33–44%
Bid 33¢ · Ask 44¢
- Gillen, 18+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 18 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$212 vol
wide spread 21–32%
Bid 21¢ · Ask 32¢
- Gillen, 21+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 21 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 10–21%
Bid 9.8¢ · Ask 21¢
- Gillen, 24+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 3–14%
Bid 2.7¢ · Ask 14¢
- Gillen, 3+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 3 percentage points?
86%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$533 vol
wide spread 81–93%
Bid 81¢ · Ask 92.8¢
- Gillen, 6+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?
75%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$644 vol
wide spread 73–85%
Bid 73¢ · Ask 85¢
- Gillen, 9+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 4th District House election be at least 9 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$859 vol
wide spread 61–72%
Bid 61¢ · Ask 72¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 4th District by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.