Selected outcome
Constantino, 12+ pts
wide spread 15–26%
Constantino, 12+ pts
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
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Markets
- Constantino, 3+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 21st District House election be at least 3 percentage points?
57%
Open · ~$3 24h · ~$348 vol
wide spread 57–69%
Bid 57¢ · Ask 69¢
- Constantino, 1+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 21st District House election be at least 1 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 66–77%
Bid 66¢ · Ask 77¢
- Constantino, 12+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 21st District House election be at least 12 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$472 vol
wide spread 15–26%
Bid 15¢ · Ask 26¢
- Constantino, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 21st District House election be at least 15 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$216 vol
wide spread 6–17%
Bid 5.8¢ · Ask 17¢
- Constantino, 18+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 21st District House election be at least 18 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$66 vol
wide spread <1–11%
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 11¢
- Constantino, 21+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 21st District House election be at least 21 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$13 vol
Bid 1.7¢ · Ask 8.4¢
- Constantino, 24+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 21st District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$126 vol
Ask 6.8¢
- Constantino, 6+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 21st District House election be at least 6 percentage points?
44%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$270 vol
wide spread 40–52%
Bid 40¢ · Ask 52¢
- Constantino, 9+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New York's 21st District House election be at least 9 percentage points?
33%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$211 vol
wide spread 27–39%
Bid 27¢ · Ask 39¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 21st District by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.