Selected outcome
Hoyle, 12+ pts
wide spread 65–77%
Hoyle, 12+ pts
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
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Markets
- Hoyle, 12+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 4th District House election be at least 12 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 65–77%
Bid 65¢ · Ask 77¢
- Hoyle, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 4th District House election be at least 15 percentage points?
66%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$36 vol
wide spread 56–67%
Bid 56¢ · Ask 67¢
- Hoyle, 18+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 4th District House election be at least 18 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 45–57%
Bid 45¢ · Ask 57¢
- Hoyle, 21+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 4th District House election be at least 21 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 35–47%
Bid 35¢ · Ask 47¢
- Hoyle, 24+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 4th District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 24–36%
Bid 24¢ · Ask 36¢
- Hoyle, 27+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 4th District House election be at least 27 percentage points?
22%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$8 vol
wide spread 14–26%
Bid 14¢ · Ask 26¢
- Hoyle, 30+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 4th District House election be at least 30 percentage points?
13%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$155 vol
wide spread 4–16%
Bid 4.2¢ · Ask 16¢
- Hoyle, 6+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 4th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?
88%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$2,509 vol
wide spread 86–97%
Bid 86¢ · Ask 97¢
- Hoyle, 9+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 4th District House election be at least 9 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 75–86%
Bid 75¢ · Ask 86¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Oregon's 4th District by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.