Selected outcome
Kelly, 12+ pts
wide spread 51–63%
54%
Kelly, 12+ pts · 54%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Kelly, 12+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Pennsylvania's 16th District House election be at least 12 percentage points?
54%
Open · ~$108 24h · ~$162 vol
wide spread 51–63%
Bid 51¢ · Ask 63¢
- Kelly, 3+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Pennsylvania's 16th District House election be at least 3 percentage points?
88%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 84¢ · Ask 92.8¢
- Kelly, 6+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Pennsylvania's 16th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 75–87%
Bid 75¢ · Ask 87¢
- Kelly, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Pennsylvania's 16th District House election be at least 15 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 35–47%
Bid 35¢ · Ask 47¢
- Kelly, 18+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Pennsylvania's 16th District House election be at least 18 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 21–33%
Bid 21¢ · Ask 33¢
- Kelly, 21+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Pennsylvania's 16th District House election be at least 21 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$74 vol
wide spread 10–21%
Bid 9.6¢ · Ask 21¢
- Kelly, 24+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Pennsylvania's 16th District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
10%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$21 vol
wide spread 2–14%
Bid 2.2¢ · Ask 14¢
- Kelly, 27+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Pennsylvania's 16th District House election be at least 27 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$44 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 9.9¢
- Kelly, 30+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Pennsylvania's 16th District House election be at least 30 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$17 vol
last
Ask 8.3¢
- Kelly, 33+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Pennsylvania's 16th District House election be at least 33 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 6.5¢
- Kelly, 9+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Pennsylvania's 16th District House election be at least 9 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 64–76%
Bid 64¢ · Ask 76¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Pennsylvania's 16th District by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.