Selected outcome
Fallon, 14+ pts
wide spread 72–84%
Fallon, 14+ pts
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Fallon, 11+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 11 percentage points?
85%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$158 vol
wide spread 84–95%
Bid 84¢ · Ask 94.5¢
- Fallon, 14+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 14 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 72–84%
Bid 72¢ · Ask 84¢
- Fallon, 17+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 17 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$49 vol
wide spread 58–70%
Bid 58¢ · Ask 70¢
- Fallon, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 20 percentage points?
48%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$19 vol
wide spread 42–54%
Bid 42¢ · Ask 54¢
- Fallon, 23+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 23 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 25–37%
Bid 25¢ · Ask 37¢
- Fallon, 26+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?
17%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$109 vol
wide spread 12–24%
Bid 12¢ · Ask 24¢
- Fallon, 29+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 29 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 3–14%
Bid 2.6¢ · Ask 14¢
- Fallon, 32+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 32 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 9.1¢
- Fallon, 8+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 8 percentage points?
94%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$46 vol
Bid 90¢ · Ask 98.8¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Texas's 4th District by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.