Selected outcome
Fallon, 8+ pts
94%
Fallon, 8+ pts · 94%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Fallon, 11+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 11 percentage points?
85%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$158 vol
wide spread 84–95%
Bid 84¢ · Ask 94.5¢
- Fallon, 14+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 14 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 72–84%
Bid 72¢ · Ask 84¢
- Fallon, 17+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 17 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$49 vol
wide spread 58–70%
Bid 58¢ · Ask 70¢
- Fallon, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 20 percentage points?
48%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$19 vol
wide spread 42–54%
Bid 42¢ · Ask 54¢
- Fallon, 23+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 23 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 25–37%
Bid 25¢ · Ask 37¢
- Fallon, 26+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 26 percentage points?
17%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$109 vol
wide spread 12–24%
Bid 12¢ · Ask 24¢
- Fallon, 29+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 29 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 3–14%
Bid 2.6¢ · Ask 14¢
- Fallon, 32+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 32 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 9.1¢
- Fallon, 8+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 4th District House election be at least 8 percentage points?
94%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$46 vol
Bid 90¢ · Ask 98.8¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Texas's 4th District by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.