Selected outcome
Baumgartner, 14+ pts
wide spread 20–32%
Baumgartner, 14+ pts
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
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Markets
- Baumgartner, 8+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 8 percentage points?
54%
Open · ~$4 24h · ~$1,133 vol
Bid 49¢ · Ask 59¢
- Baumgartner, 1+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 1 percentage points?
83%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 78¢ · Ask 88¢
- Baumgartner, 11+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 11 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$2 vol
wide spread 33–45%
Bid 33¢ · Ask 45¢
- Baumgartner, 14+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 14 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$68 vol
wide spread 20–32%
Bid 20¢ · Ask 32¢
- Baumgartner, 17+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 17 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 9–21%
Bid 9.2¢ · Ask 21¢
- Baumgartner, 2+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 2 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 75–86%
Bid 75¢ · Ask 86¢
- Baumgartner, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 20 percentage points?
9%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 2–13%
Bid 1.9¢ · Ask 13¢
- Baumgartner, 23+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 23 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 9.2¢
- Baumgartner, 5+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 5 percentage points?
64%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$398 vol
wide spread 63–74%
Bid 63¢ · Ask 74¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Washington's 5th District by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.