Selected outcome
Baumgartner, 8+ pts
54%
Baumgartner, 8+ pts · 54%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
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Markets
- Baumgartner, 8+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 8 percentage points?
54%
Open · ~$4 24h · ~$1,133 vol
Bid 49¢ · Ask 59¢
- Baumgartner, 1+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 1 percentage points?
83%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 78¢ · Ask 88¢
- Baumgartner, 11+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 11 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$2 vol
wide spread 33–45%
Bid 33¢ · Ask 45¢
- Baumgartner, 14+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 14 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$68 vol
wide spread 20–32%
Bid 20¢ · Ask 32¢
- Baumgartner, 17+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 17 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 9–21%
Bid 9.2¢ · Ask 21¢
- Baumgartner, 2+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 2 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 75–86%
Bid 75¢ · Ask 86¢
- Baumgartner, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 20 percentage points?
9%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 2–13%
Bid 1.9¢ · Ask 13¢
- Baumgartner, 23+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 23 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 9.2¢
- Baumgartner, 5+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Washington's 5th District House election be at least 5 percentage points?
64%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$398 vol
wide spread 63–74%
Bid 63¢ · Ask 74¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Washington's 5th District by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.