When will the next US recession start?

Openone winner

Next recession

Selected outcome

Q1 2025

last

<1%

Q1 2025 · <1%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end: Dec 31, 2026 ET
Resolution source: NBER (opens in a new tab)

Price

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Markets

Q1 2026
When will the next U.S. recession start?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$2,670 vol
Bid 3.1¢ · Ask 8.7¢
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Q4 2025
When will the next U.S. recession start?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$585 vol
Bid 0.6¢ · Ask 6.5¢
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Q1 2025
When will the next U.S. recession start?
<1%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$76 vol
last
Ask 0.9¢
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Q2 2025
When will the next U.S. recession start?
2%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$131 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 3.3¢
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Q3 2025
When will the next U.S. recession start?
1%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$84 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 2.8¢
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Q4 2024
When will the next U.S. recession start?
2%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$139 vol
Bid 0.2¢ · Ask 3¢
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Event statistics

24h vol: ~$0
Volume: ~$3,684
Liquidity: —
Open int.: 179k contracts

How this resolves

One winner.

Scheduled end: Dec 31, 2026 ET
Resolution source: NBER (opens in a new tab)

Trading
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Resolved

Rules text

If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Economy