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When will the next US recession start?

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Next recession

Selected outcome

Q4 2024

2%

Q4 2024 · 2%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET
Resolution source
NBER (opens in a new tab)

Price

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Markets

Event statistics
24h vol
~$0
Volume
~$3,684
Liquidity
—
Open int.
179k contracts

How this resolves

One winner.

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET
Resolution source
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.

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