Selected outcome
Reform UK minority
9%
Reform UK minority · 9%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Jan 1, 2030 ET
- Resolution source
- Politico (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Conservative majority
Will Conservative majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1 vol
Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 6.6¢
- Conservative minority
Will Conservative minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$11 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 6.4¢
- Conservative minority + DUP support
Will Conservative minority + DUP support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
3%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 4.6¢
- Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition
Will Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?
2%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 2¢
- Conservative minority + Reform UK support
Will Conservative minority + Reform UK support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 6.5¢
- Labour majority
Will Labour majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?
14%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$154 vol
Bid 11¢ · Ask 17¢
- Labour minority
Will Labour minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$15 vol
Bid 1.5¢ · Ask 9.3¢
- Labour minority + Green support
Will Labour minority + Green support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$15 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 7.2¢
- Labour minority + SNP support
Will Labour minority + SNP support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$11 vol
Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 7.5¢
- Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition
Will Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?
7%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$34 vol
Bid 3.5¢ · Ask 10¢
- Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support
Will Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$10 vol
Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 9¢
- Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition
Will Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$10 vol
Bid 1.2¢ · Ask 9¢
- Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support
Will Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$10 vol
Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 8.3¢
- Reform UK minority + Conservative support
Will Reform UK minority + Conservative support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
7%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$3 vol
Bid 3.3¢ · Ask 10¢
- Reform UK and Conservative coalition
Will Reform UK and Conservative coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$2 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 7.3¢
- Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition
Will Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?
3%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$3 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 5.1¢
- Reform UK minority + DUP support
Will Reform UK minority + DUP support form the next government in the United Kingdom?
3%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$7 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 5.5¢
- Reform UK majority
Will Reform UK majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?
9%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$4 vol
Bid 6.1¢ · Ask 11¢
- Reform UK minority
Will Reform UK minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?
9%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$2 vol
Bid 6¢ · Ask 11¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Jan 1, 2030 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If Reform UK, with Reform UK not holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons and with no other party in a confidence and supply arrangement with the ruling government exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.