Which countries will have a recession before 2027?

Open

Before 2027

Selected outcome

Japan

6%

Japan · 6%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end: Dec 31, 2027 ET
Resolution source: IMF (opens in a new tab)

Price

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Markets

United Kingdom
Which countries will have recessions?
14%
Open · ~$10 24h · ~$11k vol
Bid 13.3¢ · Ask 15.1¢
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India
Which countries will have recessions?
3%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,170 vol
Bid 1.4¢ · Ask 4.9¢
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Japan
Which countries will have recessions?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$2,462 vol
Bid 5.7¢ · Ask 6.6¢
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China
Which countries will have recessions?
3%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$410 vol
Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 5.8¢
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Event statistics

24h vol: ~$10
Volume: ~$15k
Liquidity: —
Open int.: 34k contracts

How this resolves

Scheduled end: Dec 31, 2027 ET
Resolution source: IMF (opens in a new tab)

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Resolved

Rules text

If Japan has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Economy